I had written a piece for the Bull & Bear Digest back in the early days of the new millennium. The gist of the commentary was the belief that the NASDAQ hitting 5,000 would coincide with the end of the great bull run of the 1990’s. I had just gone back into the brokerage business and began working for Frank Congilose (who would become my financial mentor).
Ironically, my now business partner, Dave Suckey, had just started in the business and was with me when I would perceive the “sell” bell was rung. We were out to lunch and were invited into a conversation with some businessmen; when one literally stood on his soap opera box to explain why he would now make 15% – 20% a year, for the next several years in the stock market. He did so, while snapping his fingers as if it will be as easy as one-two-three!
I literally went back to our office and announced over the phone system, “They just rang the bell to the top of the stock market.” Within days, that would turn out to be the case.
Now, with the DJIA within easy reach of 20,000, the evidence continues to mount to this “former” soothsayer that we’re fast approaching a price and timeframe when another major top can be at hand.
Having eaten enough broken glass from crystal balls, I no longer spend any time doing this for a living:
But please know I will still make “observations” strictly as a private investor and share them on this personal blog of mine. It’s my intentions to have a detailed commentary out by the time most of us have already blown our first “New Year’s Resolution”
For now, bonds have gone from a good buy to a “good-bye”; the U.S. Dollar is King – whether or not it has any clothes or not; oil won’t see 29 again unless there’s a 1 in front of it ($129,) and gold is within $30 dollars or 30 days of its low (Sorry, old habits die hard).
Please Note – Our office will be closed from December 17th to January 3rd.