“We really can’t forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but we really can’t.”
U.S. Stock Market – Going into last Friday, I said this about the U.S. stock market, “…The market is deeply oversold and with what looked like the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) all over it towards the end of trading today, we can see a short countertrend rally Friday into next week…”
This did indeed take place (Another Blind Squirrel Award) and while the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd can also get their sheep to buy into some more “false doctrine”, I suspect we shall resume the main trend for the foreseeable future – lower!
It doesn’t bring joy to continue to drive home the belief that both the U.S. and the world economies are not really doing well and we’re going to go through perhaps one of the worst economic, social and political periods in the modern era. But I do so knowing all my Christmas party invites to most financial institutions have long been ripped up. I’ll learn to live with it –Lol!
Oil – I’ve suggested that while the “Fat Lady” hasn’t sung yet to the end of the oil bear market, she was definitely in the building now and could step up to the microphone before long. I noted a week ago that ideally, yours truly would like to see a retest of last week’s low and even a marginal new low to think the final bottom was put in. Just remember, financial markets “rarely” do what you like them to do – just ask my wife!
Gold – This gold market assessment of a couple days ago was pretty on target to my personal views. However, I think this is a new, mega bull market underway and most surprises can be to the upside.