U.S. Stock Market – This article does a very good job showing we traded down to key support levels yesterday. Being fairly oversold and the monthly jobs report at weeks-end, a technical bounce can be expected for the near term. I think the difference now versus for the last five years or so is, you sell the rallies versus buy the dips (but than again, what do I know?).
U.S. Bonds – While treasuries and most muni’s are clearly the lesser of two evils over equities for now, the total avoidance of high-yield (junk) bonds was a very prudent observation of mine. Hooray, I’m nominated for the “blind squirrel” award again.
Oil – Too late to be selling, but still apparently too early to be buying IMHO. We would really need to see a worldwide recession to get much below the recent brief dip under $40. But we would also need a clear worldwide economic rebound to see it get back much above $50. I would still pick recession versus rebound if I had to pick one; but in oil’s case, I would just avoid until further notice.
U.S. Dollar – Much of the momentum has waned as the once strong belief we would see a steady and significant interest rate rise here in the U.S., has all but disappeared. There’s just no reason to flock to any other major currency in a world of currencies that are in a race to debase.
Gold – The difference between the physical and paper market has as much difference as night and day. But since I believe we’re down to just a few people in the entire world who haven’t written off gold despite a couple thousand years of history demonstrating that’s unwise – we hear little good news on it.
Meanwhile, its building one heck of a technical base and one of these day’s Alice – Bang, Zoom!
And finally, one of the few financial journalists one should make a must read of, John Crudele, continues his quest to show what I believe has been widespread fraud in the accounting of monthly employment figures. God’s speed John!