Despite numerous attempts to make it perfectly clear that I’m out of the “eventually” losing racket of predicting market movements, numerous folks continue to press me for my market forecasts (My wife always asks don’t they know any better? – LOL). I didn’t change the third edition of my book to say “Former” Wall Street Whiz Kid for nothing!
Now I understand when markets are violate it may be beneficial to provide my personal insights and I shall do so. But, for the love of God (and just maybe your pocketbook), don’t treat it as investment advice as it is not (and I’m not an Investment Advisor)!
Okay, with that in mind, I will provide my two cents (and that’s about all it’s worth – TWO CENTS!!!).
I enjoy appearing almost weekly on the Drew Mariani Show on Relevant Radio. I do so for many reasons, but none so more important to me than the ability to tie my faith to my views on matters of finance. I believe if one doesn’t recognize the Holy Bible as the single greatest source for matters of finance, well, best wishes ignoring it.
I spoke in last Friday’s interview that my perception to the rally in both the stock and oil market was mainly due by an exhaustion of sellers, versus any major change in overall fundamentals. While I believe the general equity market still has a lot further to decline, I did suggest oil could be reaching a major bottom and we shall likely see that “if and when” a country like Saudi Arabia says something that sparks such a change.
Well it didn’t take long for that to happen. This morning we awoke to oil substantially lower after comments from Saudi Aramco. The initial reaction was bearish; but I think as one reads between the line, one could come away from thinking both the statement and the way the market traded after the initial sell-off, could be a signal we have seen the low print in oil last week. I don’t believe it’s about to shoot back up to $60, but a period of consolidation and working higher appears at hand. Today could be one of the most important days for oil prices in a long time. I don’t think a bottom is in but the Fat Lady was seen on a road heading “towards” the building.
Knowing how the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd on Wall Street operates (and much of the financial media that caters to them), a reversal to the upside in oil will be “gold” to their marketing efforts to make the current “countertrend” rally continue.
But whether the “Happy” people lead the sheep to yet another fleecing or not, the numerous fundamental and technical bearish factors related to equities shall win out over the long run IMHO. Being a live chicken versus a dead duck is nothing to be ashamed of
Finally, I truly wish not to say this (having another bar of soap shoved down my mouth will be no fun), but gold is clearly building a base to not only fail the overwhelming bears who have been predicting its deaths for quite a while, but if and when it can close above $1,115, could see an acceleration to the upside. Trust me when I say no equity group is more unloved than mining related stocks (yes, even more than oil stocks). It’s a Contrarian buyers dream, only the nightmare of the last few years for me has forever prevented me personally from playing that group.
My best advice to you is this!