Grandich Observations

I purposely “avoid” most media these days; but one of the small minority of journalists I still respect and speak to , called me today and among his questions was, “why was there yet another large difference between the ‘ADP’ number and the ‘BLS’ one?” Good question; and my response seemed sarcastic, but was quite serious – the BLS is the government -DUH!

The “Don’t Worry”, Be Happy” crowd that makes up much of the financial services industry (and fills the financial media airwaves), will do their usual best to exploit a supposed “beat”.  Unfortunately, unless you believe waiters, bartenders, minimum wage earners and government employment is the key to a strong and sustainable economy, the lack of wage growth despite near full-employment (of course not counting the near record number of people who left the work force) is actually a very troubling sign (don’t hold your breath waiting to hear one of those Wall Street “Talking Heads” discuss that on “TOUT-TV” – CNBC-TV).

Not too long ago, these “mouthpieces” raved about job growth above 250,000 a month because that was the minimum number needed each month just to absorb all those entering the workforce. Now with average monthly growth much below that level, they simply lower the bar and rave when the occasional month is above the lowered bar – what a racket!

America is already in its worst-ever social and political era. The economic part has been delayed by record amount of debt creation and a “Trump-Bump”. That bump is already waning and will be more like a dump before we’re breaking out the snow shovels again.

U.S. Stock Market – I left the “market timing” racket for a few years now, but I still do my own technical work that served me well for the first three or so decades in and around Wall Street. If I were still in the “Guru” game, I would be writing a “boatload” of negative technical and fundamental factors that are screaming for troubles “dead-ahead”! This article happened to cover quite a few of them.

It may not seem like it to the naked eye, but the U.S. stock market “house of cards” has been weakening for several weeks now. Stay tuned.

Gold – The weight of a supposed “stronger” Fed tightening and perceived tightening to come in key markets worldwide, has proven too much for my “set of stairs”; causing yours truly to stumble back a couple flights.

But make no mistake about it, gold is one of the few investments I won’t lose sleep owning. To me, it’s downside risk is minuscule versus equities and bonds and has far more upside potential going forward.

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