In my nearly 33 years in and around Wall Street, I’ve never been more confident that a major financial crisis is brewing. Unlike the tops I envisioned in 1987, 2000 and 2007 (that were sharp declines, but not long-lasting), this time around, I suspect it will be an erosion over a very long period that will be measured in years. If I’m correct, those who had hoped to cash out (or substantially lower) large, general equity positions for retirement, should try and get past the usual “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” advice that clutters much of the financial services industry all the time. It’s time to start thinking about the financial and mental impact if the punch bowl is taken away and you’re left holding an unfilled cup.
Please keep in mind three things:
1 – Only God knows the future and I definitely learned how to spell “I was wrong” over my 32+ years
2 – These are just personal observations of a private citizen and should not be considered investment advice.
3 – Even if I’m right, I’m not anticipating this all to occur the moment this is posted on my blog. My biggest concern that even if there were further gains, most will not end up locking them in and then will be caught in the inevitable bear market at a time when they don’t have the luxury of “riding it out”.
One last thought to ponder on this – The vast majority of so-called professionals have never experienced a long, sustained period when financial assets actually don’t rise with the sun. Remember, most money managers can’t even outperform a diversified low-cost index fund during “good times”.
- Stock rally masks heightened risk in late leg of cycle
- 50% Correction is impossible! Really?
- Complacency reigns supreme.
- The end of the post-election rally.
- One of the classic signs of a distribution top forming has been when the public is buying while insiders and the “big boys” are selling. Look at chart above. Hello?
I’ve stated that were already entered America’s worst period socially and politically. Just look at the daily news. It’s evident now that about half of Americans dislike the other half. The “Happy” people in the financial services industry have little experience or concerns about geopolitical factors. Too bad, as numerous serious issues are all coming together while the typical adviser is still partying like its 1929
- The “New World Order” has been on the defensive and Donald Trump is their target.
- The beginning of the end of the European Union is underway. How the Greek banking crisis a few years ago impacted the financial markets will be miniscule compared to what’s now unfolding in Greece, Italy, France, and especially Germany (the lynch-pin to the EU).
- Eastern Europe and World War III
- China far from out of the woods.
Trump Supporters? I think not.
And for consideration:
- John Crudele of the NY Post has been a virtual lone crusader of what he and I both know, has been serious manipulation of the monthly Jobs reports. Last Friday was more of the same as the government seasonal adjustments turned actual job losses into significant gains in of all places – retail. Everyone knows January is always a time when massive layoffs occur in that sector, yet thanks to the magical government pen, ended up looking good. It will one day all come back to bite us.
- I’m very pleased that my personal holdings are heavily tilted towards gold and certain base metals. While I think base metals like copper and zinc still have upside left, gold’s potential to make new, all-time highs in next few years is a very real possibility (zinc is my favorite base-metal). I suspect we shall see money flows into gold increase as winter turns to spring. The out of the blue, massive sell orders in the paper gold market continue (saw one yesterday); but their ability to cause any lasting damage is all but gone now past a few hours or days. Another bullish sign IMHO.
Finally – While I’ve made it clear I’m not a Trump “groupie”, he was clearly the lesser of two evils this past election. But I’m not ashamed to admit I stand on the conservative right (but not so far I can’t at least “pause” at CNN for a few seconds-lol). But there’s a social war now fully underway and the “Left” hates me and others anywhere to the right of them. It has some real serious implications for some time to come.
Absolute Last Word – I stand with the Archbishop!