As a card-carrying member of “Soothsayer Anonymous”, I make my “observations” on markets with “multiple” grains of salt.
U.S. Stock Market – Going nowhere fast thanks to a subpar economy and high valuations; but buffered somewhat from the belief the FED punchbowl is more likely to return now versus a sustain rise in interest rates.
It’s been my belief that 2016 shall end up flat to down. I see no reason to try another tea leave.
U.S. Bonds – Treasuries and most muni’s continue to be the lesser of two evils in my book. Is it just me or does anyone else see us mirroring what happen in Japan since 1989?
U.S. Dollar – I have little or no personal doubt the cyclical high has already been made in the U.S. Dollar; but with a currency war underway in a debasing race to the bottom, I don’t see how it falls like a rock either.
Gold – While not quite ready to fly to the moon, one dramatic change in recent months versus previous few years, is the constant selling attacks out of nowhere don’t have any lasting effect like they once did. Since I believe it’s “when” we close above $1,300, we should then see an acceleration to $1,400 faster than it took to go from $1,200 to $1,300. The $1,400 level is the last line in the sand for the bears.
Oil – Go figure. I leave the soothsayer racket only to make perhaps my best all-time call; at over $90 I say under $30, followed by a bottom call literally the day it made its low and a belief it rallies to $50. I hereby award myself:
And some individual thoughts:
- Despite all the bells, whistles and “Boo-yahs”, yet another reason why for most investors, active management under-performs diversified, low-cost Index Funds.
- The percentage noted in this article is about what I see when I sit down with clients in retirement planning.
- Americans break record for working past 65. It doesn’t have to be this way for many if they realize traditional financial planning is a badly -flawed process (except for those who sell them)
Please Note – I will be in Green Bay, Wisconsin from May 31st to June 5th at a speaking engagement and appearing live in the studio with Drew Mariani on Relevant Radio. There shall be no blog posts during that period.