- I spent much of 2015 pleading (if not begging) with individuals to recognize America was on the threshold of its worse ever economic, social and political period. Having little or no equity exposure and avoiding high yield (junk) bonds, was an absolute must in my eyes. It could not have been put any better than in my December 30th commentary, “2016 –Time To Pay The Piper”
In recent weeks, I’ve heard from several investors; all of whom have seen a considerable amount of their portfolios eroded. They claim their advisors all say basically the same thing – “Don’t Worry” (What a surprise-NOT!).
My response to these investors is deeply rooted in my “Seven Deadly Sins of Finance”. I truly pray one fully grasps what it took for me to conclude these seven sins before it’s too late!
- I’ve stated that like it or not, the stock market eventually returns to being what it once was much of the time – a place to buy and sell part ownership in public companies. And those companies eventually are impacted more by one factor than all others – the performance of the economy. Even the “Happy” people who make up much of the financial services industry and the media that makes a living off of them, can’t twist and turn the overwhelming number of bearish economic factors. Not even the Tooth fairy Yellen can save the day this time around.
- After foreseeing the slide in oil from near $100 to under $30, I made the following observation most recently:
“I smell bottom in!” January 25, 2016
It’s been my opinion the last few weeks, that much of the commentary about oil was what one needed to hear in order to have a major bottom finally put in to this horrific bear market. No such comment was more meaningful to me regarding this than this one: “Crude will never trade back above $44 in my lifetime.”
This was uttered by a gentleman who I’ve been both friend and foe of for many years, Dennis Gartman. Personally, I’ve a “ton” of respect for Dennis’s marketing abilities, especially when you consider his actual track record could rival the other “showman” on TOUT-TV (CNBC) who rings bells, makes lot of noise, but like Dennis, their actual track record leaves much to be desire.
I believe Dennis will sadly have to die before a year or two passes: or else this latest prediction of his will end up on a very large pile of misses of his (welcome to the club Dennis).
- The “relic” gold is quietly making the enormous number of
soothsayers” who predicted its demise throughout 2015 to below $1,000, suffer amnesia (along with the financial media who played up their bearish gold calls). $1150 should offer resistance: but a $1,200 print and watch the birth of gold bulls come charging in.