The Ultimate Silly Market Indicator

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It’s that time of year again, when the financial media writes about the ultimate silly market indicator, The Super Bowl Indicator (aren’t they foolish enough being led by their noses the rest of the year by the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd on Wall Street?).

The pretense behind this yearly folly, is that somehow the winner of the Super Bowl shall prognosticate the movement of the stock market for the balance of the year (I guess selling a bridge cheap isn’t much of a story anymore). This foolishness began back in the 1970s, when a man named Leonard Koppett discovered it had not been wrong up until then.

At that point, whenever the AFC team won the Super Bowl, a bear market had followed. When the NFC won, a bull ran down Wall & Broad. Overall, the indicator has been correct 33 out of 41 times.

The fact that it’s just another in a series of silly indicators that have only two things going for them in real life:

  • Coincidence
  • If another people believe it, they can make it come to fruition

 

It’s a man’s world on Wall Street also applies to their silly indicators. Among them besides the Super Bowl are:

  • Women’s Hemlines – Besides “chasing” skirt, there are occasions when they shall claim the higher the hemline goes on women’s skirts, the better it is to buy stocks. The opposite if hemlines are dropping (skirts completely coming off is another market).
  • The Lipstick indicator – The thought here is when the ladies feel uncertain about the economy, they turned to less expensive vanities such as lipstick to improve their mood. I guess this is a classier Wall Street prop then the lipstick they put on some real bad companies they brought to market.
  • My favorite (not alone) is the “Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Edition Cover Model Indicator – Just as it sounds, here the country the cover model originates from on the cover of this “special” edition, shall determine which way the market is heading. If the model is from the U.S., the S & P 500 will outperform its historic returns. If she’s from outside the U.S., the S & P 500 underperforms. I’ve let the magazine know I be willing to interview these models extensively to see if there is anything to this, but have yet to hear back.