Is it just me or did the days not go fast enough in our youth, but are gone before we know it as we make it down the other side of the hill?
The first half of 2015 is just about over. Without the benefit (or handicap) of my soothsayer outfit anymore, here’s my best “opinion” for the rest of 2015 in regards to financial markets.
Overall – Having taken a better to be a “live chicken versus dead duck” stance when it comes to most markets, doing little or nothing may seem “unpopular” – but have you notice that most of the popular kids from your school days didn’t turn out so well?
Despite knowing it was both unpopular and personally unprofitable to state it, I’ve stated America was on the threshold of its worse economic, social and political crisis. I believe we’ve crossed that threshold and now have begun what shall end up the worst period in America’s history. Sadly, so few Americans (and even fewer so-called financial advisers) are prepared for it.
U.S. Stock and Bond Market – Despite lots of hype and media hoopla, stocks have not really made any worthy gains overall and bonds appeared to have finally peaked. There are too many bearish fundamental and technical factors to name here, but if a picture is worth a thousand words, this should describe what I think about owning lots of stocks and bonds going forward:
Commodities – I think at best, oil builds a base for at least several months before any sustained move to the upside. Outside of a major disruption of supply, there’s just nothing on the horizon to drive it substantially higher.
Gold is putting in a major bottom and while it may need the rest of 2015 to put the finishing touches to it, any further significant losses seem to be not in the cards (but remember, some say I don’t play with a full deck).
The next “hot” commodity is water. I think it shall become what oil did in the 70s and play a major role economically, socially and politically throughout the world.
Odds & Ends – Like it or not (not), politics will begin to take center stage in the U.S. The markets have basically ignored geopolitical events (but I suspect that’s going to change for the worse).
It will be bittersweet for me as I go into my 13th and final season doing bible study and chapel with the NY Giants and my dear friend, Chaplin George McGovern of Athletes in Action. Here’s hoping their season runs at least into January and I run with them!
Finally, look what I found on YouTube! My 1988 appearance on the Morton Downey Jr show. Watch here.
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